Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI for short, is a brainchild of technical analyst Welles Wilder. It has become a popular tool for traders seeking to identify overbought and oversold zones in the market.

How Does It Work?

The RSI is an oscillator, meaning its value fluctuates within a specific range, typically between 0 and 100. By analyzing these fluctuations, traders can gauge the market's momentum and potential for a trend reversal.

Interpreting the Signal:

• Oversold Territory (RSI below 30): When the RSI dips below 30, it suggests the market might be oversold. This could indicate a buying opportunity, as prices may have fallen excessively and could be due for a rebound.

• Overbought Territory (RSI above 70): Conversely, an RSI reading above 70 suggests the market might be overbought. This could signal a potential correction, as prices may have risen too quickly and become vulnerable to a pullback.

Beyond the Basics:

While these are the most common interpretations, experienced traders may also utilize RSI for:

• Identifying Divergence: When the RSI diverges from the price action (e.g., RSI moving down while price keeps rising), it could be a warning sign of a potential trend reversal.

• Trend Confirmation: In an uptrend, if the RSI keeps making new highs along with the price, it strengthens the uptrend confirmation.

Using the RSI in Trading

1. To Identify Extremes

 Oversold Territory

If the RSI is below 30, this is the oversold territory. Selling pressure is high and a technical correction is likely. Prices are forming a bottom since there are no more sellers and therefore buyers begin to come into the market. Prices eventually head back up. If the RSI indicator turns up as well, then this is a good opportunity to buy.

Remember that just because the RSI falls below 30, it does not mean it is a signal for immediate buying because the RSI may stay in the oversold territory for a long time. In order to enter at the right moment (on true market reversal) you should wait for the RSI to leave the oversold territory.

Overbought Territory

If the RSI is above 70, this is overbought territory. Buying pressure is high, and prices will form a top. Fewer buyers remain in the market and sellers begin to come in. A correction is likely, turning prices back down. If the RSI turns down as well, this is a good opportunity to sell.

Note Before Trading: Once the RSI goes above 70, you should wait for the indicator to come out of the overbought area and cross below 70 before placing your sell order.

2. To Confirm a Trend

The RSI indicator can be used to confirm the trend of the market. One way to do this is to draw trend lines on the RSI indicator. If the RSI’s trend line stays intact, it confirms that a trend holds well. RSI trend lines are especially useful on larger time frames. Look at the chart below.

Uptrend

Downtrend

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) can be a valuable tool not only for identifying overbought and oversold conditions, but also for providing earlier warnings about potential trend changes. Technical analysts can utilize trendlines drawn on the RSI chart itself, alongside regular price charts. These RSI trendlines can, at times, offer an earlier indication of a breakout compared to trendlines drawn on the price chart. This can provide a valuable heads-up for potential trend shifts.

The 50 level on the RSI acts as a kind of midpoint, demarcating neither overbought nor oversold territory. It can be a helpful tool for confirming trends observed on the price chart:

• Uptrend Confirmation: If the price chart exhibits an uptrend, and the RSI line crosses above the 50 level from below, it bolsters the uptrend's validity. This convergence suggests increasing buying momentum.

• Downtrend Confirmation: Conversely, if the price chart indicates a downtrend, and the RSI breaks below the 50 level from above, it strengthens the downtrend confirmation. This signals a potential decline in buying pressure.

3. To Identify Divergence

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers more than just insights into overbought and oversold conditions. It can also be a powerful tool for identifying divergence, a crucial signal for potential trend reversals. Divergence occurs when the price action on the chart contradicts the movement of the RSI. Imagine the price keeps making new highs (uptrend) while the RSI fails to confirm this by creating its own new highs. This discrepancy is a sign of divergence.

The Power of Divergence with RSI:

By analyzing RSI divergence, you can potentially spot trends earlier and make more informed trading decisions:

Bullish divergence This occurs when the price makes lower lows while the RSI creates higher lows. It suggests a potential weakening of the downtrend and a possible upcoming uptrend. This could be a buying opportunity.

Bearish divergence This happens when the price makes higher highs while the RSI forms lower highs. It suggests a potential weakening of the uptrend and a possible upcoming downtrend. This could be a selling opportunity.

Summary

Divergence suggests that a current momentum is over. Therefore you should protect any current profits and be ready to trade in the opposite direction.